Guy Craigie, Associate Director with Knight Frank the global property consultancy giant, gives us a look at his property credentials and an insightful article on the Dublin Property Market.
If you are anybody you know are thinking about selling your property please feel free to call Guy in the office on 01 634 2466 or visit www.knightfrank.ie email at guy.craigie@ie.knightfrank.com
I began my residential property career in the UK. After a number of years learning the business in south west London, I shifted my focus to central London to become an Associate Director at international agency Chestertons, in their Kensington offices. There, I was involved in numerous home transactions at every level dealing with an array of clients from across the globe.
I moved home to Dublin in 2017 to join Knight Frank, Ireland’s only independent, privately owned global property consultancy with more than 18,000 people in 523 offices across 60 countries. We are fortunate to receive significant amounts of referred business from our international colleagues who we work closely with on a weekly basis.
Knight Frank is the recognised brand for overseas buyers looking to make a move to Dublin – we are often their first point of contact when starting their search here.
In Ireland Knight Frank works without a traditional branch network. With so few buyers physically visiting branches anymore we direct our resources towards employing the brightest people in the business and offering a better standard of service as a result.
Myself and my residential team are based in our beautiful Georgian buildings in Dublin City Centre, home to almost 100 Knight Frank employees. We operate predominantly in South County Dublin selling all types of homes including apartments, terraced houses, detached family homes – properties of all shapes, sizes, conditions and values. What differentiates us from our competitors is not only the experience of our team and the level of service we offer to each and every one of our clients, but also our access to a vast pool of buyers from our global database. Knight Frank connects people and property, perfectly.
Dublin Market Commentary
According to the CSO, property prices in Dublin fell by 0.3% in the year to August 2019 with local authority level data suggesting price and activity weakness being concentrated at the upper-end of the market over €1m. In Dún Laoghaire Rathdown – where average house prices are highest – prices fell by 6.1% year-on-year, while prices in Fingal – the lowest average house prices – there has been a 2.3% increase in prices.
In Dublin, the market remains buoyant up to €750,000 thanks in part to first time buyers with the Help to Buy Scheme which has recently been extended; but also due to exemptions allowed on borrowing by the Central Bank beyond the normal 3.5 times income. We have seen increased private investor take up, particularly from international buyers attracted by strong yields, the stability of our economic and political system as well as the residency benefits offered by the Immigrant Investor Programme. Once we move from €750,000 plus activity slows considerably, particularly above €2,000,000 where continued uncertainty created by Brexit is weighing heavily on buyer sentiment.
However – potentially mitigating this – is the fact that our research shows that Dublin remains at the forefront of the race for Brexit-related office moves. Reinforcing this is a noticeable lift in enquiries from the UK as businesses make more definite moves to re-locate in order to more easily access the Euro zone. Buyers from Asia in particular are making an appearance in the Irish market and we expect this trend to continue to gain strength over the coming 12 months bringing with it considerable buying power to the middle and upper ends of the residential market with a special focus on Dublin.
Interest remains steady for residential property in Dublin stimulated by a strong economy and robust population growth. Evidence of this is the ESRI’s prediction that Irelands economy will grow by 4.9% in 2020 compared to an average of 2% growth for the EU27 as a whole. The results of the 2016 Census show that the population of Dublin increased by 5.7% since the last Census in 2011. Furthermore, the UN is forecasting that Dublin’s population will increase by 25.5% between now and 2030. This population increase alongside a declining average household size is contributing towards the increased demand for residential property, particularly in Dublin.
Dublin transactions listed on the property price register totaled 12,570 in 2018 meaning that just 2.2% of the total housing stock changed hands (2019 figures will be available shortly). International evidence indicates that in a normal functioning market, between 3% and 4% of the stock should transact annually, which in Dublin’s case would equates to almost 22,500 units. Knight Frank estimates that pent-up demand in Dublin now totals almost 25,000 homes. We have revised our forecasts for future housing demand in light of the higher than expected increases in Dublin’s population and according to the analysis, Dublin will now require approximately 11,000 new units each year between 2016 and 2020.
There is no doubt we are in a challenging environment however the underlying fundamentals remain bright, with a strong domestic economy and favourable demographics contributing to a positive outlook for 2020. With a general election in our midst and promises of a new savings incentive allowance for first time buyers being introduced, we expect to see a moderate increase in demand and once the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is resolved, hopefully some house price growth, particularly at the upper end of the market.
If you are anybody you know are thinking about selling your property please feel free to call Guy in the office on 01 634 2466 or visit www.knightfrank.ie email at guy.craigie@ie.knightfrank.com
